NBA games

DEN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27311734109
CLE29372629121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CLE
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 27 21 6 0
Nikola Jokic S 28 18 10 7
Christian Braun 25 13 2 0
Aaron Gordon S 32 11 4 5
Zeke Nnaji 14 9 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 9 2 2
Jalen Pickett 19 8 2 3
Reggie Jackson S 21 7 0 1
Julian Strawther 20 7 2 1
Justin Holiday 17 6 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 26 3 6
Craig Porter Jr. 25 21 4 4
Evan Mobley S 32 16 10 5
Jarrett Allen S 29 15 5 5
Georges Niang 23 12 3 2
Max Strus S 32 11 6 5
Sam Merrill 24 9 2 1
Dean Wade S 24 6 10 2
Tristan Thompson 11 5 3 0
Damian Jones 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Max Strus CLE
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
9 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 13.1 9.9
2 Darius Garland CLE 20.7 3.5 5.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 10.3 3.5
4 Caris LeVert CLE 18.7 4.5 3.8
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.9 7.0 1.7
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.1 8.0 3.7
7 Max Strus CLE 14.4 5.1 3.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.2 7.4 1.8
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.9 2.6 3.4
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.7 2.3 2.5
11 Christian Braun DEN 8.8 4.4 1.9
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.2 3.7 1.3
13 Julian Strawther DEN 5.1 1.6 0.8
14 Peyton Watson DEN 5.0 2.6 0.8
15 Emoni Bates CLE 4.9 1.9 0.6
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 2.1 1.6
17 Dean Wade CLE 4.5 2.9 1.0
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.9 2.2 0.7
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.8 1.5 0.9
20 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.5 1.0 1.0
21 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.3 0.6
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 2.9 0.6
23 Sam Merrill CLE 3.2 1.3 0.8
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.1 2.2 2.1
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 2.4 0.6
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.8 1.9 0.5
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.6 1.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.