NBA games

ORL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
128–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL42362921128
IND21233438116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home IND
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 27 24 3 0
Franz Wagner S 22 19 7 1
Jalen Suggs S 18 18 3 1
Moritz Wagner 21 16 3 2
Cole Anthony 25 15 5 3
Gary Harris 22 13 0 2
Goga Bitadze S 22 8 8 2
Anthony Black S 24 7 5 1
Jonathan Isaac 14 5 3 0
Chuma Okeke 8 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Nwora 23 19 5 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 14 6 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 25 12 2 3
T.J. McConnell 21 11 4 5
Bruce Brown S 22 11 5 1
Jalen Smith 13 10 4 0
Myles Turner S 23 10 4 3
Ben Sheppard 16 7 0 2
Jarace Walker 14 7 1 1
Isaiah Jackson 12 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Layup (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Obi Toppin IND
8%
9 Bruce Brown IND
8%
10 Anthony Black ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 25.2 3.9 7.8
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.3 7.4 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 20.0 5.7 3.9
4 Myles Turner IND 17.4 6.8 1.8
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.7 4.2 3.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 13.6 4.1 3.6
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.4 4.1 2.0
8 Buddy Hield IND 11.4 3.5 2.7
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.7 4.4 1.5
10 Bruce Brown IND 10.5 4.2 2.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 3.4 0.9
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.2 3.4 1.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.2 5.2 1.1
14 Gary Harris ORL 8.0 2.8 1.4
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.7 5.5 0.9
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.4 2.6 2.9
17 Anthony Black ORL 6.3 2.4 1.5
18 T.J. McConnell IND 6.3 2.2 3.5
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.4 0.7
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.6 1.7 0.6
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.6 1.4 1.1
22 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.6 1.3
23 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.8 3.6 0.5
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 0.9 0.5
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.2 2.4 0.8
26 Jordan Nwora IND 3.0 0.9 0.7
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.9 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.