NBA games

PHI @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
121–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23383327121
BKN2227222899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BKN
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 32 12 9
Tyrese Maxey S 36 25 2 10
De'Anthony Melton S 27 21 5 1
Jaden Springer 21 10 5 2
Tobias Harris S 32 10 5 1
Mo Bamba 3 5 0 0
Robert Covington 11 4 2 0
Danuel House Jr. 14 3 3 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 6 3 1 0
Furkan Korkmaz 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV 32 26 6 2
Mikal Bridges S 29 18 1 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 12 4 5
Nic Claxton S 23 10 9 1
Cameron Johnson S 28 9 5 2
Trendon Watford 22 8 4 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 20 6 8 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 5 3 2
Harry Giles III 6 5 1 0
Royce O'Neale 25 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
20%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
9%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
7 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
6%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
6%
10 Robert Covington PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
12%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.1 11.4 6.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.9 4.8 6.3
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.9 6.3 4.6
4 Cam Thomas BKN 22.5 4.0 2.4
5 Tobias Harris PHI 21.5 7.2 3.5
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 15.3 3.5 2.2
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.7 4.8 2.3
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 13.7 3.6 5.7
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI 12.4 3.7 3.8
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.3 4.6 1.5
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.1 6.9 1.7
12 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.4 4.6 3.3
13 Trendon Watford BKN 7.9 3.7 1.9
14 Harry Giles III BKN 7.2 4.5 0.5
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.9 6.7 0.9
16 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.4 2.2 3.3
17 Robert Covington PHI 5.3 3.1 1.0
18 Paul Reed PHI 4.9 4.3 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 4.7 2.7 0.9
20 Jaden Springer PHI 4.7 2.5 1.0
21 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.0 1.8 0.8
22 Patrick Beverley PHI 3.9 3.0 1.5
23 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.0 1.2 0.6
24 KJ Martin PHI 2.9 1.8 0.7
25 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 2.6 1.6 0.4
26 Mo Bamba PHI 1.3 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.