NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
130–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
OKC3318343213130
GS313026306123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 41 40 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 37 36 10 5
Jalen Williams S 41 22 6 3
Josh Giddey S 22 11 5 2
Isaiah Joe 27 10 4 3
Cason Wallace 28 3 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 27 3 6 2
Vasilije Micic 8 2 0 1
Jaylin Williams 6 2 2 0
Kenrich Williams 22 1 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 31 0 3
Stephen Curry S 40 25 7 3
Klay Thompson S 37 16 2 4
Jonathan Kuminga 20 13 5 2
Chris Paul S 38 12 4 11
Brandin Podziemski 25 8 3 3
Kevon Looney S 35 6 16 5
Moses Moody 18 6 4 1
Dario Saric 18 6 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey OKC
12%
2 Stephen Curry GS
10%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
8 Klay Thompson GS
7%
9 Chris Paul GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.1 6.7 6.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.1 5.1 4.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 4.3 4.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 7.8 2.8
5 Josh Giddey OKC 15.8 6.2 4.7
6 Klay Thompson GS 13.4 3.7 2.0
7 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.7 3.4 1.4
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.5 5.3 1.6
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 4.2 1.4
10 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.5 5.9
11 Dario Saric GS 10.1 6.0 1.9
12 Draymond Green GS 10.1 4.8 5.4
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.1 1.1
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 2.9 1.8
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.7 4.6 3.3
16 Kevon Looney GS 7.1 8.4 2.4
17 Moses Moody GS 7.0 3.0 1.4
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 6.2 1.7 4.3
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 2.8 2.6
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 4.0 1.4
21 Lester Quinones GS 4.9 1.8 1.4
22 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.3 1.8 0.7
23 Tre Mann OKC 4.1 1.8 1.2
24 Cory Joseph GS 3.9 1.6 1.8
25 Davis Bertans OKC 3.6 0.9 0.4
26 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.