NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
120–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26253633120
SA35332614108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 27 5 0
Desmond Bane S 34 26 5 4
Santi Aldama 36 17 10 3
Ziaire Williams 25 17 7 5
Bismack Biyombo S 31 14 9 4
Derrick Rose 14 9 1 1
John Konchar S 23 5 3 2
Jacob Gilyard S 12 3 0 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 12 2 1 2
David Roddy 26 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 33 22 3 1
Victor Wembanyama S 31 19 13 4
Jeremy Sochan S 32 16 5 3
Zach Collins S 26 16 7 6
Cedi Osman 24 13 5 1
Julian Champagnie S 20 6 2 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 11 5 2 1
Doug McDermott 16 5 0 2
Malaki Branham 18 4 1 3
Tre Jones 21 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
15%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
3 Zach Collins SA
13%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
12%
6 Bismack Biyombo MEM
11%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
35%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 25.2 4.8 5.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.4 10.1 3.3
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.9 6.3 2.9
4 Zach Collins SA 19.1 6.7 3.8
5 Keldon Johnson SA 17.8 5.8 4.5
6 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 4.9 2.0
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.7 5.1 4.8
8 Bismack Biyombo MEM 10.5 10.2 2.1
9 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.9 4.8 1.6
10 Malaki Branham SA 9.7 2.2 2.3
11 Tre Jones SA 9.2 3.0 5.5
12 David Roddy MEM 8.9 3.8 1.4
13 Doug McDermott SA 8.0 1.8 1.9
14 Derrick Rose MEM 6.6 1.5 3.0
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.6 2.3 1.4
16 Julian Champagnie SA 5.7 2.6 1.1
17 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.5 1.8 3.2
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.3 2.0 0.7
19 John Konchar MEM 5.0 3.5 1.5
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.7 2.9 1.0
21 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 4.6 2.0 1.4
22 Charles Bassey SA 4.6 4.0 0.9
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 2.0 0.9
24 Devonte' Graham SA 4.3 1.6 1.6
25 Blake Wesley SA 4.1 1.9 2.0
26 Dominick Barlow SA 3.2 1.2 0.5
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.4 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.