NBA games

DAL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
125–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL34244027125
MIL33272943132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 34 39 4 6
Luka Doncic S 35 35 9 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 17 2 2
Grant Williams S 38 14 7 2
Dante Exum 11 6 1 1
Dereck Lively II S 24 6 10 2
Josh Green 20 3 4 3
Dwight Powell 24 3 3 1
Seth Curry 9 2 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 0 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 40 15 7
Damian Lillard S 38 27 3 12
Pat Connaughton 35 16 5 3
Brook Lopez S 34 12 3 0
Bobby Portis 22 11 7 2
Cameron Payne 17 11 2 2
AJ Green 11 8 0 1
Malik Beasley S 34 7 6 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 12 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 3-foot layup (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Josh Green DAL
7%
10 Grant Williams DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
7%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.2 10.2 5.0
2 Luka Doncic DAL 29.1 7.0 8.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 25.8 4.4 6.3
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.2 4.7 6.9
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.7 3.9 1.9
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.8 5.4 1.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.5 6.6 1.8
8 Grant Williams DAL 11.0 3.3 1.7
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.7 4.1 1.5
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.7 3.4 1.5
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.9 7.1 1.2
12 Cameron Payne MIL 7.6 2.1 2.6
13 Josh Green DAL 7.3 2.7 2.1
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.1 3.6 2.1
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.1 1.5 1.2
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.1 4.2 1.2
17 AJ Green MIL 4.8 1.6 1.0
18 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.4 2.3 0.7
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.3 1.5 1.9
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.1 2.3 1.1
21 Dante Exum DAL 3.8 2.2 1.2
22 Seth Curry DAL 3.7 1.7 0.9
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 1.8 0.4
24 Robin Lopez MIL 3.2 2.0 1.0
25 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.2 2.1 1.9
26 Marques Bolden MIL 2.9 3.2 0.7
27 Markieff Morris DAL 2.8 1.1 0.5
28 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.5 2.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.