NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
97–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2624262197
CHI14262834102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 33 25 3 2
Bam Adebayo S 36 24 10 5
Duncan Robinson S 35 17 3 7
Kyle Lowry S 32 8 3 5
Josh Richardson 26 7 1 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 6 3 0
Kevin Love 12 5 6 2
Caleb Martin 15 5 2 0
Haywood Highsmith S 24 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 23 4 4
Nikola Vucevic S 33 15 8 0
Coby White S 29 14 3 5
Zach LaVine S 35 13 8 6
Alex Caruso S 29 11 1 3
Jevon Carter 14 9 1 1
Torrey Craig 17 7 5 2
Andre Drummond 15 6 9 0
Ayo Dosunmu 13 2 1 2
Patrick Williams 15 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
26%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.9 11.5 4.4
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.7 4.8 4.0
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.6 6.0 4.1
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.4 3.9 5.0
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 10.8 3.8
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.3 3.4 2.9
7 Coby White CHI 12.6 2.9 4.2
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.2 3.9 2.3
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.1 4.1 2.2
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA 10.0 3.4 1.5
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 9.0 4.0 4.9
12 Josh Richardson MIA 7.8 2.7 2.4
13 Patrick Williams CHI 7.3 3.9 1.4
14 Kevin Love MIA 6.8 5.2 1.7
15 Jevon Carter CHI 6.7 1.5 1.3
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.5 2.3 2.9
17 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 5.1 1.5
18 Andre Drummond CHI 6.2 6.3 0.9
19 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.7 1.7 1.2
20 Caleb Martin MIA 5.0 2.4 1.5
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.9 3.1 1.5
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.3 3.3 0.6
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.8 0.6
24 Dalen Terry CHI 1.8 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.