NBA games

MIN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
121–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27322636121
NO35293125120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NO
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 29 6 9
Anthony Edwards S 30 23 3 4
Rudy Gobert S 34 17 11 1
Jaden McDaniels S 34 12 2 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 10 1 3
Kyle Anderson 26 9 5 5
Shake Milton 16 8 1 1
Naz Reid 19 8 1 0
Mike Conley S 30 5 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 34 30 7 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 30 26 11 3
Jordan Hawkins S 37 15 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 37 13 5 6
Herbert Jones S 28 13 4 8
Matt Ryan 27 10 3 1
Naji Marshall 24 7 1 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 10 4 0 0
Cody Zeller 13 2 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes 19-foot jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
15%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
13%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
9 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.4 5.2 6.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.7 6.6 4.9
3 Brandon Ingram NO 23.6 5.6 5.6
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.5 9.4 3.1
5 Jordan Hawkins NO 13.9 4.2 2.1
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.8 7.8 2.2
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.6 12.0 1.6
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.2 4.3 1.4
9 Mike Conley MIN 11.8 3.2 5.0
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 4.1 2.0
11 Dyson Daniels NO 10.6 4.7 3.8
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.4 3.2 1.7
13 Matt Ryan NO 9.2 2.4 1.3
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.9 3.8 4.1
15 Naji Marshall NO 7.9 2.9 1.8
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.5 2.4 2.2
17 Shake Milton MIN 5.9 2.2 1.2
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.4 3.1 1.3
19 Josh Minott MIN 4.6 2.2 1.1
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.5 2.2 0.8
21 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.3 1.1 1.2
22 Daishen Nix MIN 3.2 0.7 1.4
23 Cody Zeller NO 2.4 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.