NBA games

NY @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
122–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30312833122
CHA19313028108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 32 4 7
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 25 3 3
Julius Randle S 38 21 6 8
RJ Barrett S 26 15 3 3
Immanuel Quickley 23 9 4 1
Josh Hart 29 7 6 4
Miles McBride 9 5 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 15 4 7 0
Mitchell Robinson S 33 4 14 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 36 34 5 9
Brandon Miller S 34 29 3 2
Miles Bridges 32 19 4 3
Mark Williams S 30 7 8 4
Ish Smith 17 7 3 4
JT Thor 11 5 2 0
Gordon Hayward S 32 4 3 4
P.J. Washington S 33 3 6 2
Bryce McGowens 16 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett NY
12%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
3 Mark Williams CHA
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
6 Julius Randle NY
9%
7 P.J. Washington CHA
9%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
28%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.5 5.4 8.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.6 3.7 5.4
3 Julius Randle NY 22.8 9.8 5.7
4 RJ Barrett NY 21.5 3.8 3.5
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 17.2 4.9 4.7
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.9 3.5 3.6
7 P.J. Washington CHA 15.2 5.2 2.0
8 Mark Williams CHA 13.6 8.6 1.5
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.3 4.2 1.9
10 Josh Hart NY 10.0 6.5 3.2
11 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.2 10.5 1.0
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.1 3.1 1.8
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.1 4.5 1.1
14 Theo Maledon CHA 5.8 2.1 1.8
15 JT Thor CHA 5.1 3.5 1.0
16 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.6 1.8 0.9
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.5 1.6 0.9
18 Ish Smith CHA 3.9 2.2 1.3
19 Miles McBride NY 3.5 1.2 0.9
20 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.5 1.2 0.8
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.7 3.0 0.8
22 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.