NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
128–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC39282734128
GS24362524109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 24 2 7
Isaiah Joe 25 23 5 0
Josh Giddey S 26 19 6 1
Jalen Williams S 29 16 3 5
Chet Holmgren S 27 13 10 2
Cason Wallace 26 10 2 4
Kenrich Williams 18 6 5 3
Aaron Wiggins 11 5 2 1
Vasilije Micic 21 5 2 7
Luguentz Dort S 24 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 27 21 6 2
Chris Paul S 28 15 3 8
Kevon Looney 19 13 11 1
Brandin Podziemski 25 13 8 3
Andrew Wiggins S 26 12 6 2
Dario Saric S 24 12 3 4
Moses Moody 23 12 4 1
Klay Thompson S 27 5 2 3
Cory Joseph 20 3 2 2
Gui Santos 4 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonathan Kuminga · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
4 Klay Thompson GS
11%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 Chris Paul GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Dario Saric GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
13%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.7 6.9 6.1
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 4.4 3.8
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.5 7.9 2.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 15.0 3.7 2.3
5 Josh Giddey OKC 13.6 6.2 4.9
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.3 4.5 1.5
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.4 4.4 1.5
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 3.2 1.2
9 Chris Paul GS 10.6 3.7 5.9
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 4.8 5.4
11 Dario Saric GS 9.8 6.3 2.0
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.9 1.6
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.5 4.3 3.3
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.2 1.8 1.1
15 Kevon Looney GS 7.1 8.2 2.4
16 Gary Payton II GS 7.0 3.3 1.3
17 Moses Moody GS 6.3 2.9 1.3
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.9 1.5 4.2
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.7 4.1 1.5
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.7 2.3 2.8
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.3 3.9 0.8
22 Tre Mann OKC 4.9 2.0 1.4
23 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.0 1.8 0.6
24 Lester Quinones GS 3.8 1.3 1.1
25 Davis Bertans OKC 3.7 0.9 0.4
26 Cory Joseph GS 3.7 1.3 1.8
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.5 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.