NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
115–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27253132115
MIA30303527122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 35 23 7 5
Lonnie Walker IV 26 23 3 1
Nic Claxton S 26 16 6 2
Cameron Johnson S 27 16 4 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 11 6 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 33 10 5 7
Royce O'Neale 20 5 0 4
Dennis Smith Jr. 16 5 2 5
Trendon Watford 10 4 2 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 35 36 5 3
Duncan Robinson S 38 26 0 2
Bam Adebayo S 34 20 7 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 10 4 5
Josh Richardson 26 8 2 3
Kevin Love 16 7 9 4
Caleb Martin 12 6 1 2
Haywood Highsmith S 23 6 1 0
Kyle Lowry S 24 3 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 10:19 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes layup (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
23%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.8 10.9 4.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.4 4.0 2.3
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.0 6.2 4.1
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.0 6.1 3.8
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.7 5.0 2.0
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.3 3.4 2.2
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.1 3.4 2.7
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 13.0 3.4 4.9
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 5.1 1.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.0 3.6 2.0
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.9 5.5 3.1
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.5 3.4 1.7
13 Nic Claxton BKN 9.3 7.1 1.5
14 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.6 3.9 4.5
15 Josh Richardson MIA 7.8 2.8 2.3
16 Trendon Watford BKN 7.3 3.9 1.6
17 Harry Giles III BKN 7.2 4.7 0.4
18 Dru Smith MIA 7.1 2.7 3.1
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.7 0.8
20 Kevin Love MIA 6.6 4.9 1.4
21 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.4 2.4 2.7
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.3 3.7 0.8
23 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.2 3.6 1.1
24 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.1 3.2 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.