NBA games

CLE @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
109–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30252826109
POR2522282095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home POR
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 34 6 4
Evan Mobley S 35 21 12 3
Caris LeVert 33 17 8 6
Max Strus S 37 14 3 7
Jarrett Allen S 29 11 9 1
Georges Niang 22 8 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 9 4 2 0
Emoni Bates 2 0 1 0
Tristan Thompson 2 0 1 0
Damian Jones 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 32 17 3 2
Duop Reath 20 16 2 3
Matisse Thybulle 26 13 3 3
Skylar Mays S 31 13 1 4
Jabari Walker 23 12 3 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 11 7 5
Deandre Ayton S 26 6 6 0
Kris Murray 17 5 2 3
Jamaree Bouyea 9 2 2 0
Toumani Camara S 22 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Skylar Mays POR
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Caris LeVert CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
33%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.2 4.7 5.9
2 Jerami Grant POR 22.5 4.7 2.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.5 5.3 3.9
4 Caris LeVert CLE 19.3 4.2 4.1
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.3 11.0 3.0
6 Max Strus CLE 15.1 5.6 3.5
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.0 11.3 1.8
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.5 7.5 1.9
9 Skylar Mays POR 8.7 2.2 4.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 7.0 4.6 1.5
11 Georges Niang CLE 6.7 3.4 1.3
12 Duop Reath POR 6.7 3.4 1.3
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.5 2.4 1.2
14 Jabari Walker POR 5.9 3.9 0.8
15 Emoni Bates CLE 5.0 1.9 0.6
16 Dean Wade CLE 4.8 3.2 1.0
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 1.8 1.4
18 Sam Merrill CLE 3.5 1.3 0.9
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.3 2.9 0.8
20 Justin Minaya POR 3.3 2.3 1.2
21 Kris Murray POR 3.3 2.2 0.7
22 Moses Brown POR 2.7 3.5 0.3
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.3 0.6
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.5 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.