NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
125–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC38343221125
LAL25342130110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 39 29 16 7
Kevin Huerter S 38 28 4 7
De'Aaron Fox S 38 28 5 5
Harrison Barnes S 39 13 1 2
Keegan Murray S 31 9 6 2
JaVale McGee 9 7 6 1
Sasha Vezenkov 12 4 0 0
Chris Duarte 4 4 0 1
Malik Monk 21 3 5 5
Keon Ellis 9 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 35 28 5 5
LeBron James S 35 28 10 12
Cam Reddish S 32 16 2 0
Anthony Davis S 35 9 9 0
Austin Reaves 34 9 11 8
Taurean Prince S 25 7 2 0
Christian Wood 9 5 2 0
Rui Hachimura 18 5 0 0
Jaxson Hayes 13 3 1 0
D'Moi Hodge 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:57 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
28%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.7 8.6 6.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.4 4.7 5.5
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.7 11.5 3.6
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.2 11.8 7.6
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.5 3.7 6.6
6 Malik Monk SAC 16.0 3.5 5.8
7 Austin Reaves LAL 15.7 4.5 4.9
8 Keegan Murray SAC 15.5 6.6 2.1
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.3 4.8 2.7
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.7 3.3 1.4
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.6 1.4
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.9 2.5 1.3
13 Christian Wood LAL 8.2 6.4 1.5
14 Cam Reddish LAL 7.9 2.9 1.4
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.1 1.8 2.4
16 JaVale McGee SAC 6.8 4.0 1.0
17 Max Christie LAL 6.0 2.9 1.2
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.6 2.7 0.7
19 Chris Duarte SAC 5.0 1.7 1.1
20 Keon Ellis SAC 5.0 2.4 0.9
21 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.8 1.4 1.1
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.5 2.2 0.8
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 1.9 0.7
24 Filip Petrusev SAC 2.8 2.0 0.7
25 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.8 1.0 0.4
26 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.