NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29252833115
PHX35413423133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 25 7 2
Mike Conley S 22 14 2 3
Jaden McDaniels S 23 13 2 3
Anthony Edwards S 31 13 4 4
Naz Reid 19 13 4 0
Shake Milton 23 8 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 8 0 0
Kyle Anderson 21 6 2 3
Luka Garza 5 5 2 0
Troy Brown Jr. 14 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 26 31 4 5
Kevin Durant S 35 31 6 6
Eric Gordon S 29 15 1 3
Grayson Allen S 28 14 3 2
Drew Eubanks 20 13 4 3
Josh Okogie 19 12 0 1
Chimezie Metu 4 4 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 24 3 5 4
Yuta Watanabe 23 3 2 3
Jordan Goodwin 16 3 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
28%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
9%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
6 Devin Booker PHX
7%
7 Josh Okogie PHX
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
4%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.9 7.2 5.1
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.5 5.9 5.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 22.6 4.0 6.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 21.9 9.1 2.9
5 Eric Gordon PHX 12.9 2.8 2.8
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 11.6 1.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.2 5.0 2.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.1 4.1 1.4
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.1 8.8 4.3
10 Mike Conley MIN 11.0 3.0 4.7
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.9 3.0 1.5
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.7 4.0 4.0
13 Josh Okogie PHX 7.8 3.4 1.4
14 Luka Garza MIN 7.5 3.0 0.7
15 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.4 5.0 1.6
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.2 3.5 1.7
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.1 2.5 2.4
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.0 3.6 1.2
19 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.5 2.7 0.9
20 Saben Lee PHX 5.5 1.5 1.9
21 Shake Milton MIN 5.3 2.0 1.4
22 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.7 2.0 0.8
23 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.0 1.9 0.8
24 Nassir Little PHX 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Josh Minott MIN 3.0 1.4 1.0
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.0 1.1 0.4
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.4 2.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.