NBA games

ORL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
96–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2129232396
CHI2112313094

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 17 9 3
Cole Anthony 22 16 5 3
Goga Bitadze S 26 15 11 2
Franz Wagner S 31 13 2 3
Jalen Suggs S 27 10 2 5
Anthony Black S 27 7 4 2
Gary Harris 21 6 0 0
Moritz Wagner 20 5 4 1
Jonathan Isaac 17 4 7 0
Joe Ingles 18 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 19 6 3
Nikola Vucevic S 36 17 9 3
Alex Caruso 24 16 5 3
Torrey Craig S 28 11 7 0
Andre Drummond 12 9 14 1
Patrick Williams S 32 9 9 2
Ayo Dosunmu 18 5 2 2
Coby White S 33 5 1 1
Jevon Carter 16 3 0 1
Julian Phillips 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Coby White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Gary Harris ORL
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.6 4.8 3.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.9 7.0 5.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.9 6.1 4.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.8 10.2 3.0
5 Cole Anthony ORL 13.8 4.4 3.1
6 Coby White CHI 13.5 3.2 4.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.3 4.6 3.0
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.4 5.0 1.4
9 Alex Caruso CHI 7.3 3.3 2.0
10 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.6 4.9 1.2
11 Jevon Carter CHI 6.6 1.4 1.3
12 Anthony Black ORL 6.5 2.7 1.7
13 Patrick Williams CHI 6.4 3.1 1.3
14 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.2 1.6 1.1
15 Torrey Craig CHI 5.8 5.0 1.5
16 Joe Ingles ORL 5.7 2.8 2.9
17 Gary Harris ORL 5.5 1.5 1.1
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.2 5.0 0.9
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.1 3.4 0.7
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.7 1.7 0.7
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.4 0.7
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.1 2.4 0.9
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.9 1.8 0.8
24 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.7 0.3 0.3
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.7 0.6
26 Julian Phillips CHI 1.8 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.