NBA games

MIL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL36343028128
TOR21263233112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home TOR
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 31 37 4 13
Malik Beasley S 31 30 4 0
Bobby Portis 31 18 7 0
Cameron Payne 16 13 1 2
Khris Middleton S 20 11 5 4
Brook Lopez S 33 10 8 4
MarJon Beauchamp 10 4 0 1
Pat Connaughton 22 3 7 0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 15 2 2 0
TyTy Washington Jr. 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 31 29 9 7
Jakob Poeltl S 27 13 11 1
Gradey Dick S 26 11 0 2
Precious Achiuwa 17 11 4 0
Pascal Siakam S 29 11 7 5
Chris Boucher 20 9 9 0
Dennis Schroder S 23 9 3 5
Malachi Flynn 27 7 3 5
Jalen McDaniels 18 7 4 1
Garrett Temple 4 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Dennis Schroder TOR
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
8 Otto Porter Jr. TOR
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.8 10.0 5.8
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 22.5 7.3 5.2
3 Damian Lillard MIL 21.9 4.2 4.8
4 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.3 3.4 7.6
5 Bobby Portis MIL 11.8 6.3 1.7
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.1 8.1 2.0
7 Khris Middleton MIL 9.8 3.1 3.6
8 Brook Lopez MIL 9.6 4.6 1.1
9 Malik Beasley MIL 8.3 3.4 1.4
10 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 7.5 2.4 1.2
11 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.5 6.3 2.1
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.2 3.0 1.9
13 Cameron Payne MIL 6.1 1.5 1.8
14 Chris Boucher TOR 6.1 4.4 0.9
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.9 1.8 1.9
16 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 5.0 3.1 0.7
17 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.9 1.2
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 2.7 0.9
19 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.7 1.1 1.7
20 AJ Green MIL 3.5 1.1 0.8
21 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.4 1.8 0.5
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.3 2.1 1.0
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.2 2.2 0.9
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.1 2.1 2.1
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.4 1.7 0.8
26 Markquis Nowell TOR 2.1 1.1 1.2
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.