NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
117–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS37202634117
PHI22361732107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 29 8 6
Derrick White S 36 27 3 5
Jrue Holiday S 35 18 10 3
Al Horford S 29 14 8 3
Luke Kornet 19 9 6 1
Sam Hauser S 35 8 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 15 5 1 0
Payton Pritchard 23 5 2 3
Dalano Banton 8 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 34 20 9 7
Tyrese Maxey S 39 20 3 4
De'Anthony Melton S 34 16 7 1
Robert Covington S 37 16 6 0
Tobias Harris S 38 16 7 3
Paul Reed 14 10 6 2
Jaden Springer 20 9 2 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 8 0 0 0
Furkan Korkmaz 3 0 0 0
Danuel House Jr. 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Anthony Melton · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"De'Anthony Melton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
18%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
8 Robert Covington PHI
9%
9 Oshae Brissett BOS
0%
10 Neemias Queta BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
13%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.4 11.6 6.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.5 8.5 4.6
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.2 5.3 6.6
4 Tobias Harris PHI 21.1 6.5 3.2
5 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.7 7.0 5.6
6 Derrick White BOS 13.1 4.0 3.9
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI 10.7 3.3 3.8
8 Sam Hauser BOS 7.9 3.2 0.9
9 Al Horford BOS 7.1 5.2 2.1
10 Neemias Queta BOS 6.8 4.0 0.5
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.4 3.0 3.1
12 Paul Reed PHI 4.6 4.3 0.9
13 Dalano Banton BOS 4.2 1.6 0.6
14 Robert Covington PHI 4.2 2.3 1.0
15 Patrick Beverley PHI 4.1 3.3 1.6
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.0 1.1 0.5
17 Jaden Springer PHI 3.9 2.0 0.8
18 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.8 1.3 0.7
19 KJ Martin PHI 3.7 2.2 0.9
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.4 2.2 0.4
21 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.4 1.6 0.9
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.8 2.4 0.4
23 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 2.8 1.9 0.5
24 Luke Kornet BOS 2.6 2.7 0.6
25 Mo Bamba PHI 1.2 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.