NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33243029116
ATL22342533114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 39 29 10 8
Jalen Brunson S 41 24 0 8
Immanuel Quickley 28 20 0 4
Isaiah Hartenstein 17 11 4 0
Quentin Grimes S 29 11 1 1
Josh Hart S 33 9 8 5
Mitchell Robinson S 31 6 15 0
Donte DiVincenzo 22 6 4 3
Miles McBride 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 28 3 3
Jalen Johnson S 31 18 5 0
Saddiq Bey 28 16 2 2
Trae Young S 34 15 1 17
Dejounte Murray S 32 13 5 2
Onyeka Okongwu 22 8 6 1
Clint Capela S 26 8 3 1
De'Andre Hunter S 26 5 2 1
Wesley Matthews 10 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Julius Randle NY
9%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
8 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
6%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
53%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.0 3.4 11.1
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.9 4.6 6.3
3 Jalen Brunson NY 23.8 3.7 4.9
4 Julius Randle NY 20.5 9.8 5.4
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.5 7.7 2.6
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 15.4 3.9 3.8
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.0 4.2 2.0
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 13.3 3.2 3.1
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 11.8 5.3 1.5
10 Clint Capela ATL 9.6 9.6 1.1
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.4 6.8 1.4
12 Josh Hart NY 8.8 5.9 2.4
13 Quentin Grimes NY 8.2 1.9 1.4
14 Evan Fournier NY 8.0 2.0 0.7
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.7 10.2 0.9
16 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.1 3.0 1.7
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.9 4.3 1.2
18 AJ Griffin ATL 4.8 1.5 0.7
19 Trent Forrest ATL 4.8 1.6 2.3
20 Miles McBride NY 4.6 1.2 1.4
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.4 1.5 0.6
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.2 2.2 0.8
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.0 0.8 0.8
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.5 2.9 0.7
25 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.5 1.6 0.7
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.1 1.2 0.5
27 Patty Mills ATL 1.2 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.