NBA games

DAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL41303326130
WSH26253234117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home WSH
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 31 4 3
Luka Doncic S 32 26 7 10
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 20 7 1
Dereck Lively II S 24 17 9 2
Seth Curry 20 15 2 2
Grant Williams S 36 10 3 7
Dante Exum 19 5 7 3
Dwight Powell 7 2 1 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 7 2 2 1
Jaden Hardy 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 30 22 6 3
Jordan Poole S 32 16 5 3
Deni Avdija S 24 15 3 4
Corey Kispert 26 12 1 4
Tyus Jones S 22 12 3 2
Daniel Gafford S 24 10 9 2
Danilo Gallinari 18 10 6 1
Bilal Coulibaly 28 10 8 2
Johnny Davis 7 4 1 1
Landry Shamet 21 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
17%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Grant Williams DAL
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
40%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.6 7.6 8.8
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.1 6.1 3.7
3 Jordan Poole WSH 18.6 3.4 4.4
4 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.2 4.1 1.9
5 Deni Avdija WSH 14.4 6.0 4.2
6 Grant Williams DAL 10.8 3.6 1.5
7 Tyus Jones WSH 10.7 3.0 5.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.0 4.0 1.6
9 Corey Kispert WSH 10.0 2.9 1.8
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.0 4.0 2.0
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.6 7.8 1.4
12 Josh Green DAL 8.6 3.0 2.4
13 Daniel Gafford WSH 8.3 6.9 1.4
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.9 1.9 1.5
15 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.7 2.3 1.5
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.0 1.8 1.2
17 Dwight Powell DAL 6.4 4.8 1.3
18 Johnny Davis WSH 5.2 2.4 0.7
19 Mike Muscala WSH 5.2 2.9 0.9
20 Dante Exum DAL 4.6 2.1 1.2
21 Seth Curry DAL 4.3 2.0 0.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.1 2.2 0.6
23 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.9 1.9 1.3
24 Markieff Morris DAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 3.3 3.5 0.6
26 Jared Butler WSH 2.8 1.2 1.3
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.6 0.6
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.