NBA games

CLE @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
120–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25352931120
SAC33354222132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SAC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 38 22 2 5
Caris LeVert 28 21 3 1
Max Strus S 34 19 5 4
Evan Mobley S 30 16 12 2
Darius Garland S 34 16 3 6
Georges Niang 22 12 1 1
Jarrett Allen S 22 12 9 1
Tristan Thompson 13 2 1 0
Craig Porter Jr. 3 0 3 3
Sam Merrill 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 36 28 2 6
Keegan Murray S 38 25 8 1
Domantas Sabonis S 35 23 9 10
Kevin Huerter S 29 20 2 2
Malik Monk 26 13 5 4
Sasha Vezenkov 17 11 2 0
Harrison Barnes S 22 4 5 3
JaVale McGee 7 2 4 1
Alex Len 6 2 0 3
Chris Duarte 9 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
33%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.6 5.1 5.8
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 22.9 4.2 5.0
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.3 12.3 6.8
4 Caris LeVert CLE 18.8 4.4 4.4
5 Darius Garland CLE 18.4 3.5 6.3
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.0 10.5 2.9
7 Malik Monk SAC 15.6 3.2 5.7
8 Keegan Murray SAC 14.2 6.6 2.2
9 Max Strus CLE 13.1 5.6 3.1
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.8 7.2 1.9
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.1 5.2 2.6
12 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.7 3.3 1.4
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.5 2.1 2.6
14 Georges Niang CLE 6.8 3.8 1.3
15 JaVale McGee SAC 6.6 3.6 0.8
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.3 3.7 1.0
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.1 2.9 0.7
18 Colby Jones SAC 5.0 1.8 0.9
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 1.6 1.1
20 Keon Ellis SAC 4.9 2.3 0.8
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.2 1.7 1.2
22 Damian Jones CLE 3.1 2.6 0.5
23 Alex Len SAC 3.1 3.3 0.9
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 3.3 0.8
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 2.0 0.7
26 Sam Merrill CLE 2.3 1.0 0.7
27 Jordan Ford SAC 2.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.