NBA games

CHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
109–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI18312535109
MIL35242435118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 36 26 12 5
Zach LaVine S 39 20 8 5
Coby White S 26 16 3 1
Patrick Williams 27 13 3 2
DeMar DeRozan S 37 11 4 7
Torrey Craig S 22 8 12 2
Jevon Carter 14 6 0 1
Ayo Dosunmu 26 5 2 1
Andre Drummond 12 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 35 11 2
Bobby Portis 25 19 10 2
Khris Middleton S 19 13 6 2
Damian Lillard S 32 12 3 5
Brook Lopez S 29 11 5 0
Malik Beasley S 21 9 2 0
MarJon Beauchamp 20 8 5 2
Pat Connaughton 29 6 8 5
Andre Jackson Jr. 13 5 3 0
Cameron Payne 17 0 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Coby White CHI
8%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
8 Cameron Payne MIL
6%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.2 10.4 4.4
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 23.4 4.1 4.3
3 Zach LaVine CHI 22.8 4.7 3.4
4 Damian Lillard MIL 21.7 4.2 4.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.1 10.2 3.2
6 Coby White CHI 13.3 3.4 4.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 11.4 6.2 1.9
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.1 4.6 1.2
9 Khris Middleton MIL 9.9 3.0 3.9
10 Malik Beasley MIL 9.1 3.3 1.8
11 Alex Caruso CHI 8.0 3.6 2.2
12 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 7.4 2.3 1.3
13 Patrick Williams CHI 6.8 3.5 1.4
14 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.8 2.0 1.3
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 4.8 1.5
16 Jevon Carter CHI 6.4 1.7 1.3
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.4 2.7 1.8
18 Cameron Payne MIL 6.3 1.5 1.5
19 Andre Drummond CHI 6.0 5.7 1.0
20 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.7 2.3 0.8
21 AJ Green MIL 4.7 1.6 1.2
22 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.1 1.2 1.9
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.0 2.9 1.2
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.3 2.1 2.3
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.7 1.6 0.9
26 Terry Taylor CHI 2.6 2.2 0.6
27 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 1.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.