NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
107–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH32322716107
TOR25203630111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 38 34 3 3
Jordan Poole S 35 14 4 6
Daniel Gafford S 26 14 9 3
Bilal Coulibaly 33 10 7 3
Tyus Jones S 31 10 3 8
Corey Kispert 24 10 2 3
Deni Avdija S 30 9 8 6
Mike Muscala 7 4 2 0
Landry Shamet 15 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 38 39 11 7
Scottie Barnes S 38 19 9 4
Jakob Poeltl S 24 13 6 5
Precious Achiuwa 19 10 4 1
Gradey Dick 24 8 4 2
Chris Boucher 21 7 7 2
Malachi Flynn 23 6 2 1
Otto Porter Jr. S 14 5 1 0
Dennis Schroder S 35 4 4 6
Jalen McDaniels 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes dunk (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
3 Dennis Schroder TOR
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
8 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 24.1 10.0 5.7
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.0 6.3 3.4
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 21.0 7.2 5.3
4 Dennis Schroder TOR 18.4 3.5 8.7
5 Jordan Poole WSH 17.1 3.1 3.7
6 Deni Avdija WSH 13.8 5.9 3.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.3 9.0 1.7
8 Tyus Jones WSH 10.3 2.9 4.3
9 Corey Kispert WSH 8.9 2.7 1.5
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.0 3.5 1.5
11 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.8 6.7 2.2
12 Landry Shamet WSH 7.1 1.8 1.2
13 Daniel Gafford WSH 7.0 6.5 1.0
14 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 4.5 1.0
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.5 2.2 2.1
16 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 5.5 2.1 0.6
17 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.8 1.2
18 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 5.0 3.4 0.8
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.9 2.4 0.6
20 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.5 2.7 1.3
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.1 2.4 1.0
22 Mike Muscala WSH 3.7 2.3 0.5
23 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.6 1.8 1.2
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.0 1.5 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.5 0.5
26 Markquis Nowell TOR 2.4 1.0 1.3
27 Jared Butler WSH 2.2 1.1 1.2
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.2 0.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.