Monday, November 13, 2023

NY @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final

98–114

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NY	24	29	23	22	98
BOS	25	27	32	30	114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (NY) games this season

NY away

home BOS

21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Jalen Brunson S	39	26	3	4	10/21	3/7	-20
Julius Randle S	38	25	9	5	7/19	2/8	-10
Josh Hart S	43	16	9	3	6/12	3/6	-10
Quentin Grimes S	28	12	0	1	4/6	4/6	-10
Immanuel Quickley	26	7	6	1	1/10	1/2	-12
Donte DiVincenzo	16	5	1	1	2/6	1/4	-3
Mitchell Robinson S	33	4	6	1	2/2	0/0	-14
Isaiah Hartenstein	15	3	3	1	1/2	1/1	-2
Miles McBride	1	0	0	0	0/1	0/1	1
Jericho Sims	1	0	0	0	0/0	0/0	0

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Jayson Tatum S	39	35	6	7	13/23	5/12	12
Jaylen Brown S	36	22	5	6	7/18	2/9	17
Kristaps Porzingis S	33	21	6	3	7/11	3/6	19
Jrue Holiday S	37	14	7	2	5/9	3/5	5
Sam Hauser	21	12	4	2	4/6	4/6	6
Payton Pritchard	19	5	3	3	2/3	1/1	5
Derrick White S	31	3	2	4	1/7	1/3	14
Al Horford	22	2	4	0	1/2	0/1	2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1

"Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Jalen Brunson NY

14%

2 RJ Barrett NY

12%

3 Julius Randle NY

11%

4 Jaylen Brown BOS

11%

5 Jayson Tatum BOS

11%

6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS

10%

7 Mitchell Robinson NY

8 Jrue Holiday BOS

9 Derrick White BOS

10 Quentin Grimes NY

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

20%

Dunk

Free Throw

Jumper

25%

Layup

40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Jayson Tatum	BOS	25.3	8.5	4.5	35	6	7
2	Jaylen Brown	BOS	22.4	5.1	3.3	22	5	6
3	Jalen Brunson	NY	21.8	4.0	4.7	26	3	4
4	RJ Barrett	NY	20.6	3.8	3.3	—	—	—
5	Julius Randle	NY	19.3	9.6	4.7	25	9	5
6	Kristaps Porzingis	BOS	18.2	6.5	1.9	21	6	3
7	Immanuel Quickley	NY	14.7	3.4	3.6	7	6	1
8	Jrue Holiday	BOS	14.1	6.7	5.6	14	7	2
9	Derrick White	BOS	13.3	4.2	3.8	3	2	4
10	Mitchell Robinson	NY	8.1	9.9	0.8	4	6	1
11	Josh Hart	NY	7.7	5.5	2.2	16	9	3
12	Donte DiVincenzo	NY	7.3	3.0	1.5	5	1	1
13	Al Horford	BOS	7.1	5.1	2.1	2	4	0
14	Sam Hauser	BOS	7.0	3.0	0.9	12	4	2
15	Quentin Grimes	NY	6.9	1.9	1.2	12	0	1
16	Isaiah Hartenstein	NY	6.3	4.4	1.1	3	3	1
17	Payton Pritchard	BOS	6.1	2.9	3.6	5	3	3
18	Dalano Banton	BOS	5.0	1.9	0.8	—	—	—
19	Miles McBride	NY	4.9	1.4	1.6	0	0	0
20	Svi Mykhailiuk	BOS	4.8	1.5	0.7	—	—	—
21	Lamar Stevens	BOS	3.7	2.3	0.5	—	—	—
22	Oshae Brissett	BOS	3.6	2.6	0.6	—	—	—
23	Luke Kornet	BOS	3.3	2.9	0.8	—	—	—
24	DaQuan Jeffries	NY	3.3	1.2	0.7	—	—	—
25	Jericho Sims	NY	2.7	3.2	0.6	0	0	0
26	Ryan Arcidiacono	NY	2.4	1.5	0.5	—	—	—

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.