NBA games

POR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28292330110
LAL31253525116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAL
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 41 23 5 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 42 19 3 4
Skylar Mays S 33 15 4 12
Matisse Thybulle S 20 14 2 3
Deandre Ayton S 34 12 7 0
Duop Reath 14 11 3 3
Jabari Walker 18 8 4 1
Jamaree Bouyea 12 6 4 3
Toumani Camara 24 2 6 2
Kris Murray 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 41 30 13 6
Rui Hachimura S 33 19 5 2
Austin Reaves 28 18 4 4
Cam Reddish S 38 18 7 2
Taurean Prince S 33 11 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 32 11 5 11
Christian Wood 15 7 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 7 2 0 1
Max Christie 13 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 2-foot dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
16%
2 Jerami Grant POR
14%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
13%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
6 Taurean Prince LAL
9%
7 Duop Reath POR
9%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
9 Matisse Thybulle POR
7%
10 Austin Reaves LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
26%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 22.9 4.5 2.4
2 Anthony Davis LAL 22.7 11.1 3.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.3 5.2 3.7
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.9 4.0 6.6
5 Austin Reaves LAL 15.3 4.3 4.5
6 Deandre Ayton POR 11.2 11.0 1.6
7 Taurean Prince LAL 9.9 2.3 1.4
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.3 3.8 1.3
9 Christian Wood LAL 7.8 6.4 1.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 6.3 3.9 1.4
11 Duop Reath POR 6.3 2.8 1.0
12 Cam Reddish LAL 6.3 2.7 1.3
13 Skylar Mays POR 5.9 1.2 2.9
14 Max Christie LAL 5.7 2.8 1.1
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 1.9 1.0
16 Jabari Walker POR 5.0 4.0 0.6
17 Justin Minaya POR 3.9 2.5 1.6
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.4 2.7 0.9
19 Kris Murray POR 3.3 2.0 0.6
20 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.2 0.9 1.0
21 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.2 1.2 0.5
22 Moses Brown POR 3.1 3.7 0.4
23 Alex Fudge LAL 1.7 1.2 0.3
24 Rayan Rupert POR 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.