NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29253527116
GS31202237110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 33 6 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 21 14 3
Jaden McDaniels S 35 13 0 1
Naz Reid 19 10 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 17 10 2 1
Rudy Gobert S 35 10 10 3
Kyle Anderson 17 8 4 1
Mike Conley S 31 8 5 9
Troy Brown Jr. 1 2 0 0
Shake Milton 10 1 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 38 5 3
Klay Thompson S 33 16 5 3
Dario Saric 27 11 10 1
Jonathan Kuminga 24 10 3 0
Draymond Green S 24 9 9 7
Brandin Podziemski 1 8 1 0
Andrew Wiggins S 25 6 4 2
Gary Payton II 14 4 4 2
Chris Paul 22 2 1 5
Moses Moody 13 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 3-foot two point shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
4 Klay Thompson GS
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Kevon Looney GS
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
60%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
6%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 28.6 4.8 4.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.6 6.4 5.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.7 7.7 2.7
4 Klay Thompson GS 15.1 4.1 2.1
5 Naz Reid MIN 12.9 4.4 1.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.8 3.7 1.5
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 10.9 1.3
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.6 4.0 1.3
9 Draymond Green GS 11.2 4.7 5.7
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 3.7 1.5
11 Chris Paul GS 10.3 3.7 6.4
12 Mike Conley MIN 9.9 2.9 3.5
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 3.9 4.5
14 Luka Garza MIN 7.8 3.2 0.7
15 Dario Saric GS 7.7 5.8 1.7
16 Kevon Looney GS 7.4 8.2 2.9
17 Moses Moody GS 6.6 2.8 1.2
18 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.9 1.2
19 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.1 4.1 3.3
20 Shake Milton MIN 6.0 2.0 1.8
21 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.8 2.6 2.3
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.0 0.6
23 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.0 2.1 0.6
24 Josh Minott MIN 3.3 1.6 1.0
25 Daishen Nix MIN 3.1 0.8 1.3
26 Cory Joseph GS 3.1 1.3 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.