NBA games

OKC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC29252631111
PHX2930271399

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home PHX
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 35 7 4
Jalen Williams S 38 31 1 1
Chet Holmgren S 33 18 6 4
Josh Giddey S 32 10 6 10
Luguentz Dort S 33 9 6 1
Isaiah Joe 16 3 1 1
Jaylin Williams 13 3 4 0
Aaron Wiggins 12 2 2 1
Davis Bertans 3 0 0 0
Cason Wallace 17 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 28 9 4
Drew Eubanks 21 15 5 1
Bradley Beal S 30 15 8 5
Jordan Goodwin 29 11 5 3
Josh Okogie S 21 8 2 1
Grayson Allen S 32 7 6 1
Yuta Watanabe 17 6 0 2
Keita Bates-Diop 27 6 8 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 3 8 1
Chimezie Metu 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.7 7.2 5.6
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.4 6.3 6.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.7 4.4 4.4
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.0 7.4 2.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 15.9 3.5 3.1
6 Josh Giddey OKC 14.7 6.1 4.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.6 4.9 3.5
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 13.0 4.6 1.7
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.9 9.2 4.8
10 Cason Wallace OKC 9.5 2.9 1.5
11 Josh Okogie PHX 8.5 4.0 1.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.2 1.3
13 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 7.1 3.9 1.4
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.0 6.1 2.3
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.0 3.7 1.9
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.7 4.4 1.6
17 Yuta Watanabe PHX 6.7 3.3 1.1
18 Saben Lee PHX 6.4 1.8 2.1
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 2.2 1.0
20 Davis Bertans OKC 4.9 0.9 0.5
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.6 1.8 0.5
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.3 1.0 3.9
23 Nassir Little PHX 4.2 1.9 0.8
24 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.0 1.9 0.6
25 Tre Mann OKC 3.5 1.6 1.0
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.8 1.4 0.5
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.0 2.7 0.3
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.