NBA games

MIA @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA15353236118
SA29243129113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SA
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 39 26 5 4
Bam Adebayo S 34 24 11 6
Jimmy Butler III S 37 19 6 4
Josh Richardson S 26 12 3 4
Dru Smith 27 12 4 3
Kevin Love 14 12 2 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 11 6 3
Thomas Bryant 5 2 0 1
Haywood Highsmith S 26 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 37 20 12 6
Victor Wembanyama S 34 18 11 7
Zach Collins S 33 18 5 2
Jeremy Sochan S 34 16 5 3
Devin Vassell S 33 14 7 4
Malaki Branham 20 13 1 7
Doug McDermott 21 8 3 5
Cedi Osman 20 3 1 0
Charles Bassey 6 3 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
5 Zach Collins SA
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
37%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.0 10.1 3.9
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.0 6.4 3.8
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.8 8.9 2.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.0 3.4 2.7
5 Keldon Johnson SA 15.8 5.6 3.9
6 Zach Collins SA 14.9 6.3 4.1
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.4 5.9 4.7
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.0 2.8 2.1
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.6 3.0 1.7
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.0 3.5 2.1
11 Malaki Branham SA 8.6 2.2 1.8
12 Cedi Osman SA 8.3 2.4 1.6
13 Dru Smith MIA 7.4 2.6 3.7
14 Josh Richardson MIA 6.9 2.3 2.0
15 Doug McDermott SA 6.9 1.7 1.2
16 Kevin Love MIA 6.7 5.7 1.8
17 Cole Swider MIA 6.6 1.6 0.9
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.6 4.4 0.9
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.5 3.6 1.2
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.4 3.2 1.5
21 Charles Bassey SA 4.9 3.7 1.0
22 Devonte' Graham SA 3.8 1.7 0.6
23 Julian Champagnie SA 3.6 2.5 0.7
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.6 1.8 2.0
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.2 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.