NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
136–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL34334227136
NO27273139124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 29 35 6 7
Luka Doncic S 28 30 4 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 15 9 2
Josh Green 28 13 2 3
Dereck Lively II S 26 10 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 7 1 2
Dwight Powell 18 7 10 2
Jaden Hardy 7 7 2 2
Dante Exum 13 6 1 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 6 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 31 20 5 5
Zion Williamson S 27 18 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 17 9 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 15 10 3
Matt Ryan 27 14 6 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 26 11 6 1
Jordan Hawkins S 28 10 2 2
Naji Marshall 14 8 2 2
Kira Lewis Jr. 8 5 1 4
Cody Zeller 13 3 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes two point shot (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
15%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Dyson Daniels NO
8%
9 Grant Williams DAL
6%
10 Jordan Hawkins NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
33%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.9 8.0 8.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 21.5 6.8 4.5
3 Brandon Ingram NO 21.3 5.9 4.8
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.5 4.6 6.9
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 17.1 4.0 2.3
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.9 8.6 1.8
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.2 3.7 1.8
8 Grant Williams DAL 11.6 4.0 1.5
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.8 7.7 1.4
10 Josh Green DAL 9.8 2.9 2.0
11 Dyson Daniels NO 9.2 4.6 2.7
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.0 3.5 1.3
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.9 2.5 1.6
14 Matt Ryan NO 8.9 2.4 1.6
15 Dwight Powell DAL 6.9 4.2 1.2
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.0 3.5 1.4
17 Dereon Seabron NO 5.6 2.1 1.2
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.5 4.1 1.1
19 Naji Marshall NO 4.9 1.9 1.6
20 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 4.9 1.6 1.5
21 Dante Exum DAL 4.6 2.5 2.0
22 Seth Curry DAL 4.3 1.7 0.8
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.0 2.3 0.5
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.7 2.2 0.9
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.4 2.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.