NBA games

DEN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30202628104
HOU23232833107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home HOU
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 36 21 11
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 25 10 0
Aaron Gordon S 39 16 8 5
Reggie Jackson S 28 14 4 2
Collin Gillespie 20 6 1 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 5 0 1
Zeke Nnaji 11 2 4 0
Christian Braun 14 0 1 0
Peyton Watson 7 0 0 1
Julian Strawther 8 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 41 26 2 4
Alperen Sengun S 35 23 8 5
Jeff Green 26 15 4 0
Dillon Brooks S 29 10 4 2
Jalen Green S 35 9 8 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 20 8 7 0
Tari Eason 16 8 3 2
Aaron Holiday 17 5 2 2
Jae'Sean Tate 20 3 6 0
Jock Landale 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes two point shot (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
19%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
8 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
10%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 13.1 8.8
2 Jalen Green HOU 19.7 4.2 2.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.5 8.2 5.6
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.8 3.8 6.8
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 7.4 1.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.4 7.5 3.5
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 3.8 2.1
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.7 6.5 1.7
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.6 2.6 2.0
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.6 2.1 3.1
11 Tari Eason HOU 7.4 6.8 1.3
12 Christian Braun DEN 7.2 4.3 2.0
13 Julian Strawther DEN 6.9 1.5 0.7
14 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.8 3.3 1.3
15 Nate Williams HOU 5.9 2.0 0.6
16 Jeff Green HOU 5.5 2.9 1.0
17 Peyton Watson DEN 5.1 2.6 0.8
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.1 2.0 1.8
19 Jock Landale HOU 4.8 2.5 1.1
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 2.5 0.6
21 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.8 1.1 1.2
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.7 1.5 0.8
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.4 2.3 2.1
24 Braxton Key DEN 3.0 1.8 1.0
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.8 2.5 0.8
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.7 0.8 0.6
27 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.