NBA games

DET @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
108–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET31193127108
CHI22332935119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Knox II 24 18 3 1
Isaiah Stewart S 31 17 11 2
Alec Burks 21 16 3 4
Marvin Bagley III S 23 14 5 1
Cade Cunningham S 38 10 3 5
Ausar Thompson S 32 9 16 2
Killian Hayes S 25 7 3 3
James Wiseman 14 6 2 0
Jaden Ivey 11 6 0 2
Marcus Sasser 20 5 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 29 1 1
Nikola Vucevic S 33 21 12 4
Zach LaVine S 34 19 3 2
Coby White S 32 16 0 7
Ayo Dosunmu 27 13 1 3
Andre Drummond 15 11 13 1
Patrick Williams 19 4 0 0
Torrey Craig S 31 3 10 2
Jevon Carter 12 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes dunk (Ausar Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
9%
8 Coby White CHI
9%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
6%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 23.6 4.5 3.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 4.4 7.5
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.9 3.9 4.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.0 10.2 3.1
5 Coby White CHI 13.5 3.7 4.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.0 10.3 2.8
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.9 7.2 1.8
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.9 10.7 3.8
9 Killian Hayes DET 12.0 3.7 4.9
10 Jaden Ivey DET 10.9 3.1 2.6
11 Marcus Sasser DET 9.6 3.0 2.5
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.7 4.8 1.4
13 Alec Burks DET 8.5 2.4 1.6
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.0 3.5 1.5
15 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.5 1.8 1.5
16 Jevon Carter CHI 6.4 1.3 1.3
17 Torrey Craig CHI 5.8 3.6 1.4
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.5 5.3 1.0
19 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.8 0.7
20 Joe Harris DET 3.7 0.9 0.8
21 Stanley Umude DET 3.7 1.7 0.7
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.7 2.1 0.6
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.