NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
105–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM33192726105
LAC20252333101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 35 27 4 6
Marcus Smart S 36 17 3 7
Bismack Biyombo S 36 13 12 3
Luke Kennard 24 13 1 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 12 4 1
Santi Aldama 21 9 3 2
David Roddy 21 8 6 0
Jacob Gilyard S 24 6 5 3
John Konchar 5 0 2 0
Ziaire Williams 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 26 7 7
Norman Powell 31 20 2 3
Kawhi Leonard S 37 14 5 3
Russell Westbrook S 31 12 9 5
James Harden S 29 11 4 3
Terance Mann 27 7 3 3
Ivica Zubac S 23 6 6 1
P.J. Tucker 13 3 2 1
Moussa Diabate 12 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot (Bismack Biyombo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
13%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 Bismack Biyombo MEM
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
9%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
9 Russell Westbrook LAC
8%
10 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
23%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.7 5.0 4.9
2 Paul George LAC 22.4 5.0 3.9
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.9 5.0 4.0
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.6 6.8 2.9
5 James Harden LAC 17.7 5.5 5.0
6 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.3 6.6 6.1
7 Marcus Smart MEM 14.6 3.3 5.3
8 Bones Hyland LAC 14.3 3.1 3.8
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.9 2.8 1.7
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 11.2 8.8 1.1
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.1 5.6 1.5
12 Bismack Biyombo MEM 11.0 10.7 1.4
13 Santi Aldama MEM 10.3 5.3 1.5
14 David Roddy MEM 8.7 3.8 1.3
15 Luke Kennard MEM 7.6 2.6 2.0
16 Terance Mann LAC 7.1 3.6 1.6
17 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 5.7 2.6 1.4
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.4 1.8 4.1
19 John Konchar MEM 5.4 4.0 1.2
20 Kobe Brown LAC 5.3 2.5 0.8
21 Moussa Diabate LAC 4.6 3.8 0.6
22 Amir Coffey LAC 4.2 1.6 0.9
23 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 3.9 2.7 0.9
24 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.8 3.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.