NBA games

WSH @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
94102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH1526312294
BKN30192924102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BKN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly 34 20 7 3
Kyle Kuzma S 31 15 4 3
Deni Avdija S 38 14 9 3
Jordan Poole S 32 12 5 2
Danilo Gallinari 20 12 3 3
Landry Shamet 20 8 5 1
Corey Kispert 27 8 3 4
Daniel Gafford S 16 5 5 0
Tyus Jones S 23 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 34 27 13 2
Cameron Johnson S 35 14 6 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 31 12 4 3
Nic Claxton S 28 10 13 2
Royce O'Neale 31 10 6 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 8 12 1
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 8 4 6
Dorian Finney-Smith S 20 6 3 0
Lonnie Walker IV 14 5 2 2
Trendon Watford 9 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 9:31 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 Royce O'Neale BKN
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
43%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.8 6.3 3.4
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 20.6 5.4 4.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.5 3.1 4.0
4 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 17.3 4.0 2.5
5 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 12.9 5.0 1.9
6 Deni Avdija WSH 12.7 5.6 3.3
7 Tyus Jones WSH 12.0 3.3 4.9
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 11.6 3.3 5.2
9 Royce O'Neale BKN 10.2 6.2 3.3
10 Trendon Watford BKN 9.8 4.6 2.3
11 Corey Kispert WSH 9.0 2.7 1.5
12 Nic Claxton BKN 8.9 6.0 1.6
13 Harry Giles III BKN 8.7 5.1 0.8
14 Daniel Gafford WSH 8.2 6.8 1.1
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.8 6.8 1.0
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.7 2.5 1.4
17 Landry Shamet WSH 7.6 1.7 1.3
18 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.1 3.3 1.5
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.3 2.1 2.2
20 Johnny Davis WSH 5.8 2.7 0.8
21 Armoni Brooks BKN 5.3 2.1 0.8
22 Ryan Rollins WSH 4.5 2.2 1.5
23 Mike Muscala WSH 4.3 2.5 0.6
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.9 0.8
25 Jared Butler WSH 2.5 1.2 1.2
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.