NBA games

CHA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
107–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA25292528107
NY32323530129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NY
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 33 32 7 6
Nick Richards 22 16 4 0
Brandon Miller S 10 11 3 0
Mark Williams S 23 10 4 2
JT Thor 23 6 4 0
Theo Maledon 25 6 2 4
Gordon Hayward S 29 6 1 2
Leaky Black 6 5 2 0
Ish Smith 17 4 5 2
P.J. Washington S 22 4 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 31 24 4 2
Julius Randle S 27 23 5 5
Jalen Brunson S 27 20 1 1
Immanuel Quickley 26 17 5 9
Mitchell Robinson S 24 10 9 0
Donte DiVincenzo 23 9 1 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 18 6 6 1
Quentin Grimes S 23 6 1 1
Josh Hart 27 6 4 2
Jericho Sims 7 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
14%
2 Mark Williams CHA
11%
3 Gordon Hayward CHA
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
10%
6 RJ Barrett NY
10%
7 Julius Randle NY
10%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 22.4 4.1 5.4
2 RJ Barrett NY 21.9 3.9 3.7
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.7 4.9 7.8
4 Gordon Hayward CHA 19.1 5.5 5.1
5 Julius Randle NY 18.7 9.8 4.9
6 P.J. Washington CHA 17.5 5.5 2.3
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.5 3.3 3.6
8 Mark Williams CHA 14.1 9.3 1.6
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.4 4.9 1.9
10 Mitchell Robinson NY 9.0 10.1 1.0
11 Quentin Grimes NY 9.0 1.9 1.5
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.2 3.1 1.8
13 Nick Richards CHA 8.0 6.2 0.9
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.9 2.0 0.8
15 Josh Hart NY 7.5 5.3 2.4
16 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 7.4 4.7 1.5
17 Theo Maledon CHA 6.0 2.2 1.8
18 JT Thor CHA 5.7 3.7 1.1
19 Miles McBride NY 5.0 1.2 1.8
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.4 2.0 0.8
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.1 0.9 0.8
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.5 3.0 0.8
24 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.3 1.4 0.6
25 Dylan Windler NY 2.1 0.7 0.6
26 Amari Bailey CHA 1.3 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.