NBA games

CLE @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30381634118
GS31213127110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home GS
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 36 22 5 3
Donovan Mitchell S 36 21 7 5
Evan Mobley S 31 19 5 2
Darius Garland S 36 19 6 4
Max Strus S 33 16 8 4
Jarrett Allen S 28 12 5 4
Dean Wade 17 8 7 0
Craig Porter Jr. 2 1 0 0
Georges Niang 19 0 2 1
Emoni Bates 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 30 3 2
Klay Thompson S 28 14 5 1
Andrew Wiggins S 29 13 5 3
Jonathan Kuminga 21 12 3 0
Chris Paul 26 9 3 9
Draymond Green S 18 8 5 4
Moses Moody 18 8 5 1
Dario Saric 16 5 5 1
Gary Payton II 11 3 5 0
Cory Joseph 2 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Max Strus makes driving layup (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Klay Thompson GS
9%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Dario Saric GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
14%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.0 5.0 4.5
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 4.8 5.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 18.2 3.0 5.5
4 Caris LeVert CLE 16.9 4.2 4.2
5 Evan Mobley CLE 16.4 10.3 2.7
6 Klay Thompson GS 14.7 4.2 2.2
7 Max Strus CLE 13.0 5.4 3.3
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS 12.8 4.2 1.7
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.0 7.8 1.5
10 Draymond Green GS 11.5 4.8 5.7
11 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.4 3.7 1.2
12 Chris Paul GS 9.9 3.9 6.2
13 Dario Saric GS 8.7 5.7 1.7
14 Kevon Looney GS 7.8 7.9 2.6
15 Moses Moody GS 7.6 3.1 1.3
16 Georges Niang CLE 7.0 3.8 1.2
17 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.5 4.4 3.4
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.7 2.7 1.0
19 Dean Wade CLE 5.4 3.6 0.9
20 Emoni Bates CLE 5.4 2.0 0.5
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.3 0.7
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.3 1.1 1.1
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.7 3.3 0.9
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.3 2.1 0.2
25 Cory Joseph GS 2.0 1.2 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.