NBA games

MIA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA41223024117
ATL24283027109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ATL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 39 26 17 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 38 20 3 4
Kyle Lowry S 33 17 2 4
Josh Richardson 23 16 2 0
Duncan Robinson S 30 11 3 2
Haywood Highsmith S 34 11 6 5
Dru Smith 28 9 2 2
Kevin Love 14 7 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 27 2 11
Dejounte Murray S 36 23 5 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 15 3 1
De'Andre Hunter S 36 10 5 2
Jalen Johnson S 22 9 4 2
Clint Capela S 24 8 12 0
Saddiq Bey 24 8 8 0
Wesley Matthews 7 7 2 0
Onyeka Okongwu 24 2 7 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Clint Capela makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
13%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
5 Clint Capela ATL
12%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
7 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
9 Kevin Love MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
34%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.5 3.4 10.7
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.9 8.6 3.6
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 21.5 4.7 5.5
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 14.3 7.7 2.9
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.4 4.3 1.8
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.2 3.3 3.2
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 11.8 5.7 1.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 6.7 1.6
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.0 2.6 2.2
10 Clint Capela ATL 9.6 9.1 1.1
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.2 2.5 1.5
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.7 4.1 5.2
13 Jamal Cain MIA 7.5 5.2 0.7
14 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.2 3.3 1.9
15 Dru Smith MIA 7.1 2.4 3.9
16 Cole Swider MIA 6.7 1.5 0.9
17 Josh Richardson MIA 6.4 2.2 2.1
18 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.9 4.2 0.9
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.4 3.5 1.2
20 Kevin Love MIA 5.3 5.1 1.4
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.3 3.1 1.5
22 AJ Griffin ATL 5.2 1.7 0.9
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.2 3.0 1.0
24 Trent Forrest ATL 3.8 1.2 1.8
25 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.1 0.5
26 Wesley Matthews ATL 1.3 1.5 0.6
27 Patty Mills ATL 1.3 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.