NBA games

MIL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
97–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2524232597
ORL29362324112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ORL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 35 10 7
Cameron Payne S 26 14 0 2
Bobby Portis 28 13 7 1
Khris Middleton S 20 10 0 7
Brook Lopez S 21 9 3 1
MarJon Beauchamp 20 5 4 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 14 4 3 0
Pat Connaughton 16 3 3 1
AJ Green 9 3 2 3
Jae Crowder 17 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 26 12 5
Franz Wagner S 38 24 6 3
Jalen Suggs S 38 20 2 2
Moritz Wagner 21 19 4 1
Jonathan Isaac 17 10 5 0
Joe Ingles 23 5 3 5
Cole Anthony 14 4 2 3
Goga Bitadze S 21 2 9 2
Anthony Black S 28 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Payne · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cameron Payne makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Markelle Fultz ORL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
8%
10 Cameron Payne MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.7 9.7 3.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 19.6 5.6 3.9
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 18.7 6.1 5.8
4 Cole Anthony ORL 14.0 4.2 3.4
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.1 4.6 2.7
6 Markelle Fultz ORL 12.0 4.0 4.2
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.3 4.4 1.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.2 4.6 1.2
9 Bobby Portis MIL 10.0 5.8 1.6
10 Khris Middleton MIL 9.6 2.8 3.3
11 Malik Beasley MIL 9.5 3.5 1.7
12 Jae Crowder MIL 8.8 4.1 1.7
13 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 7.4 2.1 1.1
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.3 2.6 2.0
15 Anthony Black ORL 6.3 3.0 1.7
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 4.2 1.1
17 Cameron Payne MIL 5.6 1.2 1.5
18 Joe Ingles ORL 4.8 2.6 2.2
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.7 3.1 0.6
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 0.9 0.5
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 1.3 0.5
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 2.6 1.1
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.2 1.5 0.3
24 Chris Livingston MIL 3.1 0.6 0.3
25 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.9 2.0 2.1
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.9 1.9 0.9
27 AJ Green MIL 2.7 0.8 0.6
28 Robin Lopez MIL 2.2 1.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.