NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Mexico City Arena ·Final
120–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34392027120
ORL34352921119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 41 4 8
Jalen Johnson S 31 19 9 2
Dejounte Murray S 33 16 3 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 29 15 4 3
De'Andre Hunter S 26 12 0 1
Onyeka Okongwu 21 7 2 2
Clint Capela S 26 6 11 4
Saddiq Bey 29 2 3 0
AJ Griffin 10 2 0 0
Bruno Fernando 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 31 21 2 1
Paolo Banchero S 34 17 8 4
Moritz Wagner 20 13 7 0
Markelle Fultz S 29 13 2 3
Franz Wagner S 29 12 7 3
Goga Bitadze S 21 12 5 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 12 7 0
Anthony Black 17 9 3 1
Cole Anthony 23 7 2 2
Joe Ingles 18 3 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
5 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Markelle Fultz ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
10 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
27%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 22.9 3.2 8.7
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 19.9 4.7 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.7 4.9 3.7
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 17.7 5.8 5.3
5 Cole Anthony ORL 14.6 4.2 3.4
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.4 4.5 1.7
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 13.4 7.0 3.1
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.3 5.5 1.5
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.2 6.6 1.5
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.1 3.4 3.0
11 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.4 4.4 2.8
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.2 3.9 1.2
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.7 3.7 3.8
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 8.5 0.7
15 Anthony Black ORL 5.7 2.5 1.6
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 3.6 1.0
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.3 1.4 0.7
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 0.9 0.5
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.2 2.1 2.0
20 AJ Griffin ATL 3.9 1.2 0.6
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.2 0.5
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.5 2.8 0.9
23 Trent Forrest ATL 3.4 1.0 1.7
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.0 2.2 0.8
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.0 0.4
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.0 1.5 0.7
27 Patty Mills ATL 1.1 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.