NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
124–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL24363430124
IND38282733126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 54 12 3
Khris Middleton S 20 19 2 4
Malik Beasley S 29 13 4 2
Bobby Portis 24 11 8 2
Pat Connaughton 25 8 2 4
Cameron Payne S 30 7 4 5
MarJon Beauchamp 13 5 4 2
Jae Crowder 29 5 4 1
Brook Lopez S 29 2 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 29 6 10
Bennedict Mathurin S 36 26 11 2
Myles Turner S 37 21 6 4
Buddy Hield 22 11 2 2
Bruce Brown S 38 11 9 7
Andrew Nembhard 20 10 2 2
Obi Toppin S 13 7 0 0
Aaron Nesmith 16 6 1 0
Isaiah Jackson 11 3 3 0
Daniel Theis 8 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
4 Malik Beasley MIL
10%
5 Bruce Brown IND
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
8 Obi Toppin IND
9%
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
21%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.3 9.9 3.7
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.0 4.3 11.1
3 Myles Turner IND 16.2 8.2 1.9
4 Buddy Hield IND 13.3 3.9 3.6
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.8 3.7 3.1
6 Bruce Brown IND 11.3 3.9 2.3
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.1 3.7 1.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.8 4.8 1.3
9 Jae Crowder MIL 10.3 4.3 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.9 2.4 4.6
11 Malik Beasley MIL 9.8 3.6 1.7
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.7 4.2 1.2
13 Bobby Portis MIL 9.6 5.6 1.7
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.6 6.4 1.2
15 Khris Middleton MIL 9.2 3.2 3.2
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 8.1 2.5 1.5
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.4 4.4
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 3.1 2.1
19 Cameron Payne MIL 6.2 1.5 1.8
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 2.0 1.5
21 Jarace Walker IND 5.8 3.6 1.7
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.4 3.0 1.3
23 Jordan Nwora IND 4.4 1.7 1.1
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.3 3.8 0.6
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.2 1.9 0.4
26 Chris Livingston MIL 4.1 0.9 0.4
27 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.9 2.1 2.3
28 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.0 0.7
29 Robin Lopez MIL 3.2 1.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.