NBA games

POR @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
118–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR293124277118
SAC3422292610121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SAC
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 46 38 9 5
Skylar Mays 37 18 2 11
Shaedon Sharpe S 40 18 1 3
Deandre Ayton S 41 18 10 2
Matisse Thybulle S 34 13 2 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 5 5 1 1
Moses Brown 5 4 3 1
Jabari Walker 15 2 2 1
Toumani Camara 25 2 4 1
Kris Murray 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 40 27 11 9
Malik Monk 30 23 6 10
Kevin Huerter S 39 17 5 4
Davion Mitchell 28 16 0 4
Harrison Barnes S 36 12 5 0
Alex Len 13 10 6 1
Keegan Murray S 31 9 7 3
Keon Ellis S 21 4 4 0
Chris Duarte 11 3 2 0
Kessler Edwards 16 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
3 Jerami Grant POR
12%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
10%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Davion Mitchell SAC
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
19%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.1 5.7 3.6
2 Jerami Grant POR 18.4 4.2 2.0
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR 18.1 5.1 5.5
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.2 11.8 6.2
5 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 5.8 2.0
6 Malik Monk SAC 13.4 2.8 4.8
7 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.0 2.9 1.7
8 Deandre Ayton POR 11.1 11.0 1.7
9 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.0 3.7 2.2
10 JaVale McGee SAC 8.1 4.1 1.1
11 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.2 2.2 3.1
12 Colby Jones SAC 6.6 2.2 1.3
13 Toumani Camara POR 6.2 3.8 1.4
14 Chris Duarte SAC 6.1 1.6 1.3
15 Jabari Walker POR 5.8 4.6 0.8
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 3.0 0.9
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.8 1.0
18 Skylar Mays POR 4.9 1.2 2.1
19 Keon Ellis SAC 4.6 2.0 0.8
20 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.8 2.1 0.8
21 Jordan Ford SAC 3.5 1.3 0.7
22 Alex Len SAC 3.2 2.6 1.1
23 Kris Murray POR 3.0 1.9 0.7
24 Moses Brown POR 3.0 3.2 0.3
25 Filip Petrusev SAC 2.9 2.1 0.9
26 Rayan Rupert POR 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.