NBA games

GS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS21263127105
DEN26272332108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DEN
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 23 5 4
Klay Thompson S 32 15 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 29 11 5 0
Kevon Looney S 30 10 8 4
Moses Moody 14 10 3 1
Jonathan Kuminga 19 10 4 2
Chris Paul 27 9 5 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 18 8 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 11 5 3 2
Dario Saric S 26 4 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 35 13 5
Reggie Jackson S 32 20 2 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 17 8 2
Aaron Gordon S 34 14 11 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 10 3 3
Christian Braun 16 4 2 2
Collin Gillespie 16 3 0 1
Justin Holiday 8 3 3 0
Peyton Watson 11 2 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 6 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Dario Saric assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Klay Thompson GS
13%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Kevon Looney GS
10%
8 Reggie Jackson DEN
10%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
9%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
31%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.1 12.2 8.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.7 4.9 4.2
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.7 7.5 2.0
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.3 4.3 1.6
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.6 6.8 3.5
6 Klay Thompson GS 14.1 4.0 2.1
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.7 3.5 1.3
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.6 2.6 1.9
9 Chris Paul GS 10.3 3.9 6.3
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.4 2.3 2.7
11 Dario Saric GS 9.2 5.5 1.7
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.9 1.9 1.0
13 Christian Braun DEN 8.3 4.7 2.1
14 Moses Moody GS 6.7 2.9 1.1
15 Kevon Looney GS 6.6 8.1 2.4
16 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.4 4.9 3.9
17 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 3.0 1.2
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 5.5 2.7 1.0
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.1 3.1 0.7
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.0 4.4 0.6
21 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.3 1.3 1.3
22 Braxton Key DEN 3.9 2.3 1.3
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 2.5 2.4
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.3 0.9
25 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.0 0.7
26 Jerome Robinson GS 2.9 1.8 0.8
27 Cory Joseph GS 2.4 1.4 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.