NBA games

TOR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
127–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27353728127
DAL33253028116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 31 12 5
OG Anunoby S 36 26 5 2
Dennis Schroder S 30 18 2 5
Gary Trent Jr. 26 16 2 1
Scottie Barnes S 39 14 14 7
Chris Boucher 15 10 2 0
Malachi Flynn 15 8 4 4
Jakob Poeltl S 21 4 6 3
Otto Porter Jr. 15 0 3 0
Gradey Dick 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 31 7 8
Kyrie Irving S 36 22 4 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 17 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 15 5 1
Jaden Hardy 12 6 1 2
Grant Williams S 27 6 2 1
Dwight Powell S 24 5 6 0
Dante Exum 8 5 5 0
Maxi Kleber 15 4 2 4
Josh Green 18 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"O.G. Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
3 Dennis Schroder TOR
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 OG Anunoby TOR
12%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
7 Luka Doncic DAL
10%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Grant Williams DAL
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.8 7.7 7.0
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.3 9.1 5.5
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.3 4.6 7.2
4 Pascal Siakam TOR 18.0 6.3 4.5
5 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.2 3.4 7.9
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.9 3.8 1.8
7 OG Anunoby TOR 14.7 3.7 2.4
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.5 2.8 1.7
9 Grant Williams DAL 11.5 4.6 1.8
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.2 9.1 1.6
11 Josh Green DAL 10.1 3.1 1.7
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.6 2.3 1.5
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.9 2.6 0.9
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.4 2.3 2.1
15 Dwight Powell DAL 5.4 3.1 0.9
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.2 4.6 0.5
17 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 5.1 3.6 1.0
18 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.8 1.1
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.1 2.4 1.0
20 Dante Exum DAL 3.6 2.0 1.9
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.3 2.4 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 1.8 0.3
23 Maxi Kleber DAL 2.7 2.5 0.6
24 Seth Curry DAL 2.6 1.1 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.9 0.4
26 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.1 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.