NBA games

CLE @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
120–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29283033120
OKC36342929128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home OKC
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caris LeVert 34 29 5 5
Evan Mobley S 33 22 5 1
Donovan Mitchell S 37 20 5 5
Darius Garland S 36 15 3 9
Jarrett Allen S 26 14 6 1
Max Strus S 32 12 7 3
Georges Niang 18 7 2 0
Tristan Thompson 13 1 2 2
Dean Wade 11 0 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 43 7 6
Jalen Williams S 33 15 4 2
Chet Holmgren S 29 15 7 2
Cason Wallace 24 14 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 36 14 4 3
Josh Giddey S 25 8 5 6
Jaylin Williams 10 6 3 0
Isaiah Joe 18 6 3 0
Ousmane Dieng 9 4 5 1
Davis Bertans 10 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Darius Garland CLE
15%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
34%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.6 5.0 5.4
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.6 6.6 6.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 4.3 4.4
4 Darius Garland CLE 18.1 3.0 5.3
5 Caris LeVert CLE 16.6 4.1 4.5
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.2 7.0 2.5
7 Evan Mobley CLE 15.8 10.5 2.8
8 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 6.5 4.7
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 13.4 4.4 1.4
10 Max Strus CLE 12.8 4.7 3.3
11 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.9 4.0 2.2
12 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.4 5.3 2.0
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.3 2.2 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.3 2.7 1.5
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.2 3.8 1.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 5.9 3.3 1.0
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.5 2.2 1.5
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 2.3 0.7
19 Davis Bertans OKC 4.8 0.7 0.4
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.7 1.2 4.0
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.3 1.2
22 Tre Mann OKC 3.4 1.6 1.0
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.9 3.3 0.7
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.9 2.5 0.5
25 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.