NBA games

NO @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
101–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24202433101
MIN28442525122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MIN
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 32 24 3 6
Jordan Hawkins S 30 14 1 1
Matt Ryan 26 12 4 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 28 11 9 1
Dereon Seabron 17 9 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 8 6 0
Dyson Daniels S 31 7 3 5
Larry Nance Jr. 18 6 3 0
Cody Zeller 12 4 5 6
E.J. Liddell 5 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 26 3 8
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 23 3 0
Rudy Gobert S 32 17 21 1
Mike Conley S 21 12 4 4
Jaden McDaniels S 26 10 0 3
Shake Milton 19 10 4 1
Naz Reid 22 9 4 0
Kyle Anderson 25 6 2 5
Luka Garza 5 5 2 0
Troy Brown Jr. 5 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 2-foot two point shot (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
16%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
7%
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 6.6 4.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.6 7.8 3.1
3 Zion Williamson NO 19.0 6.1 4.6
4 Brandon Ingram NO 18.9 5.6 4.1
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.4 4.6 1.8
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.5 4.3 1.7
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.1 10.9 1.3
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.7 7.8 1.6
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.3 3.2 1.6
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.9 2.8 3.5
11 Luka Garza MIN 8.4 3.5 1.0
12 Dyson Daniels NO 8.3 4.0 2.4
13 Matt Ryan NO 7.9 2.3 1.7
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.6 3.6 4.6
15 Shake Milton MIN 6.4 2.0 2.2
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.2 2.7 1.8
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.3 4.0 1.0
18 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 5.2 1.4 1.5
19 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.4 2.3 0.7
20 Dereon Seabron NO 4.1 1.6 0.9
21 Josh Minott MIN 4.1 1.7 1.2
22 Daishen Nix MIN 3.9 0.9 1.7
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.0 2.5 1.4
24 E.J. Liddell NO 2.4 1.9 0.5
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.4 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.