NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET23294323118
MIL24382830120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 33 8 8
Marcus Sasser 29 26 6 2
Killian Hayes S 29 14 5 4
Marvin Bagley III 20 12 2 2
Jalen Duren S 28 11 12 5
Isaiah Stewart S 37 8 4 1
Ausar Thompson S 37 6 15 3
Jared Rhoden 13 6 1 3
Stanley Umude 9 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 34 34 2 3
Bobby Portis 23 18 5 2
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 22 15 9 5
Brook Lopez S 26 14 6 0
Malik Beasley S 25 10 6 2
MarJon Beauchamp 27 10 2 1
Jae Crowder S 37 10 5 2
Cameron Payne 24 7 1 3
Pat Connaughton 19 2 0 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Marvin Bagley III DET
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
8 Killian Hayes DET
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
32%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.3 9.8 3.5
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.7 4.3 7.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 22.2 4.3 5.0
4 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 10.1 2.4
5 Ausar Thompson DET 13.8 9.4 3.6
6 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.6 7.0 2.1
7 Jaden Ivey DET 12.0 3.5 2.8
8 Killian Hayes DET 10.9 3.1 4.6
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.3 4.3 1.2
10 Jae Crowder MIL 9.6 4.2 1.8
11 Malik Beasley MIL 9.4 3.3 1.5
12 Marcus Sasser DET 8.9 2.8 2.7
13 Bobby Portis MIL 8.9 5.5 1.6
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.7 5.0 1.3
15 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 8.4 3.0 1.6
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.2 3.3 2.1
17 Cameron Payne MIL 5.8 1.3 1.8
18 James Wiseman DET 5.5 4.1 0.9
19 Malcolm Cazalon DET 4.9 1.2 1.3
20 Stanley Umude DET 4.9 1.9 0.9
21 Joe Harris DET 4.7 1.2 1.0
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.9 1.8 0.4
23 Chris Livingston MIL 3.8 0.9 0.4
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 2.8 1.3
25 Jared Rhoden DET 3.4 2.0 0.7
26 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.4 2.1 2.2
27 AJ Green MIL 3.4 1.0 0.7
28 Robin Lopez MIL 2.8 1.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.