NBA games

MIA @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
108–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33212331108
MEM26203026102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 36 30 11 1
Kyle Lowry S 35 17 11 9
Jimmy Butler III S 35 15 3 2
Haywood Highsmith S 27 14 2 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 21 11 3 2
Duncan Robinson 35 9 3 2
Tyler Herro S 8 6 1 2
Dru Smith 15 2 4 1
Josh Richardson 17 2 0 2
Thomas Bryant 12 2 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 28 4 2
Desmond Bane S 36 15 5 3
Luke Kennard 27 13 2 3
Santi Aldama 26 12 8 0
Marcus Smart S 32 11 4 7
Bismack Biyombo S 30 9 10 0
Jacob Gilyard 15 6 0 4
David Roddy 13 4 3 0
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 7 2 0 1
Ziaire Williams S 21 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes 1-foot dunk (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Marcus Smart MEM
11%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
7 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
9 Kevin Love MIA
6%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
37%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.7 5.1 4.6
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.4 5.0 5.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.4 8.5 3.7
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.6 7.1 3.9
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.3 7.0 2.7
6 Marcus Smart MEM 15.7 3.4 6.2
7 Ziaire Williams MEM 12.3 5.6 1.7
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.5 2.8 2.0
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.5 5.6 2.0
10 David Roddy MEM 10.1 4.0 1.6
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.6 2.3 1.5
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.9 3.5 4.3
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.1 3.5 1.9
14 Thomas Bryant MIA 6.9 4.2 0.9
15 Luke Kennard MEM 6.8 2.7 2.0
16 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 6.7 2.7 1.6
17 Josh Richardson MIA 6.6 2.6 1.9
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.9 1.6 3.7
19 Kevin Love MIA 5.2 5.6 1.4
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.2 3.5 1.5
21 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.1 2.2 0.7
22 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.5 2.0 3.9
23 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.5 2.9 1.0
24 GG Jackson MEM 3.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.