NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
94–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL1926262394
HOU32343329128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura 26 24 8 2
D'Angelo Russell S 28 22 2 4
LeBron James S 27 18 6 2
Taurean Prince S 27 7 1 1
Cam Reddish 25 7 1 0
Austin Reaves S 26 7 1 4
Max Christie 28 4 8 3
D'Moi Hodge 10 3 0 1
Colin Castleton 14 2 2 2
Maxwell Lewis 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 21 28 7 3
Alperen Sengun S 25 19 7 4
Jae'Sean Tate 27 14 1 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 12 6 0
Fred VanVleet S 29 9 4 10
Jeff Green 11 9 6 0
Tari Eason 14 9 9 2
Aaron Holiday 23 7 2 3
Boban Marjanovic 6 6 7 0
Nate Williams 8 5 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
7 Jalen Green HOU
10%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 23.9 7.3 5.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 21.5 10.5 3.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 19.3 4.3 3.0
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.2 3.7 5.7
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.5 8.6 6.0
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.5 3.5 6.5
7 Austin Reaves LAL 15.8 4.5 3.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.0 7.0 2.1
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.1 3.7 2.2
10 Taurean Prince LAL 9.2 2.6 1.2
11 Christian Wood LAL 8.3 6.0 1.4
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 7.0 3.0 0.8
13 Max Christie LAL 6.5 2.6 1.1
14 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.0 3.6 1.4
15 Nate Williams HOU 5.5 2.0 0.5
16 Cam Reddish LAL 5.4 3.0 1.2
17 Jock Landale HOU 5.4 2.5 1.5
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.2 2.5 1.1
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 2.2 1.8
20 Colin Castleton LAL 3.7 4.4 0.4
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.3 2.3 1.1
22 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.1 0.8 0.9
23 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.9 1.3 0.3
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.5 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.