NBA games

PHX @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
116–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX362131199116
CHI282927238115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHI
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 37 26 8 4
Kevin Durant S 42 25 7 9
Jusuf Nurkic S 38 20 17 8
Bradley Beal S 24 13 4 4
Josh Okogie 18 7 2 0
Keita Bates-Diop S 31 7 5 3
Yuta Watanabe 18 6 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 17 6 2 0
Drew Eubanks 14 4 3 2
Eric Gordon 25 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 41 26 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 40 22 2 7
Zach LaVine S 41 22 8 8
Alex Caruso 31 19 4 2
Coby White S 37 11 7 6
Jevon Carter 13 8 0 0
Patrick Williams 21 3 4 1
Ayo Dosunmu 10 2 3 1
Andre Drummond 12 2 3 1
Torrey Craig S 20 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
4 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
9 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
10 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.0 6.2 4.6
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.9 4.4 3.1
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.0 3.8 4.6
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.3 10.3 2.9
5 Eric Gordon PHX 14.6 3.2 2.8
6 Coby White CHI 13.7 3.4 4.1
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.2 3.8 3.4
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.0 7.5 3.6
9 Josh Okogie PHX 10.0 4.1 1.8
10 Patrick Williams CHI 7.9 3.5 1.7
11 Alex Caruso CHI 7.6 3.5 2.4
12 Saben Lee PHX 7.2 2.1 2.4
13 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 7.2 2.1 1.7
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.0 5.9 2.2
15 Yuta Watanabe PHX 6.9 2.8 1.0
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.8 4.1 2.1
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.7 1.6 1.5
18 Andre Drummond CHI 6.5 6.1 1.1
19 Torrey Craig CHI 6.4 4.2 1.7
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.6 3.3 1.1
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.7 2.2 0.9
22 Nassir Little PHX 4.5 2.0 0.8
23 Terry Taylor CHI 3.5 2.6 0.9
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.3 1.7 0.7
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.9 1.2
26 Julian Phillips CHI 3.2 1.5 0.5
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.6 2.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.