NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
105–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA16352133105
NY33323427126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremy Sochan S 29 16 6 5
Malaki Branham S 24 14 0 1
Victor Wembanyama S 30 14 9 2
Tre Jones 25 12 1 5
Zach Collins S 25 11 7 3
Doug McDermott 22 11 3 1
Keldon Johnson S 33 9 7 8
Charles Bassey 15 6 4 1
Devin Vassell 12 4 2 2
Blake Wesley 3 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 33 25 2 6
RJ Barrett S 32 24 2 6
Julius Randle S 31 23 16 5
Immanuel Quickley 28 19 0 5
Isaiah Hartenstein 15 13 3 0
Mitchell Robinson S 31 8 12 1
Quentin Grimes S 19 8 1 3
Josh Hart 24 3 5 0
Donte DiVincenzo 20 3 4 2
Jericho Sims 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett NY
11%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
5 Zach Collins SA
10%
6 Julius Randle NY
10%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
8%
10 Malaki Branham SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
36%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett NY 22.2 4.3 3.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 20.4 3.9 4.7
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.5 7.7 2.4
4 Julius Randle NY 17.2 9.2 4.2
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.7 3.3 2.4
6 Zach Collins SA 16.4 6.5 4.5
7 Immanuel Quickley NY 15.9 3.6 3.5
8 Keldon Johnson SA 15.5 4.9 3.4
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.1 5.4 4.0
10 Tre Jones SA 9.3 3.0 5.4
11 Mitchell Robinson NY 9.2 10.2 1.0
12 Cedi Osman SA 8.7 2.9 1.4
13 Quentin Grimes NY 8.7 2.1 1.5
14 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.6 3.3 2.0
15 Malaki Branham SA 8.2 2.4 2.1
16 Josh Hart NY 8.1 5.6 2.9
17 Evan Fournier NY 7.8 2.0 0.8
18 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.9 4.6 1.6
19 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.5 1.2
20 Miles McBride NY 4.8 1.0 1.8
21 Devonte' Graham SA 4.6 2.0 0.8
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.6 1.8 2.3
23 Julian Champagnie SA 4.5 2.8 0.7
24 Charles Bassey SA 4.4 3.2 1.1
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.0 1.6 0.6
26 Dominick Barlow SA 4.0 1.5 0.7
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.8 0.6 0.6
28 Jericho Sims NY 2.2 3.3 0.8
29 Dylan Windler NY 2.0 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.