NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
103–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS27271732103
PHI22392025106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 31 29 6 3
Derrick White S 38 19 4 5
Jayson Tatum S 37 16 15 6
Sam Hauser 19 13 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 35 12 5 5
Jaylen Brown S 36 11 2 2
Al Horford 26 3 5 3
Payton Pritchard 16 0 2 4
Luke Kornet 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 27 10 4
Tyrese Maxey S 39 25 9 5
Tobias Harris S 38 17 9 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 14 8 1
Paul Reed 11 8 4 0
Nicolas Batum 26 5 4 1
Robert Covington 15 5 3 0
De'Anthony Melton S 29 3 4 2
Patrick Beverley 15 2 5 4
Furkan Korkmaz 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 2-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.4 10.8 6.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.4 8.4 4.5
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 22.3 4.1 6.3
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.0 5.3 3.4
5 Tobias Harris PHI 18.4 6.2 3.2
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.6 6.8 1.6
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 4.2 1.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.6 6.3 4.5
9 Derrick White BOS 13.4 4.2 3.2
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 12.6 3.8 4.5
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.8 2.5 3.7
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.3 1.1
13 Al Horford BOS 6.9 5.3 1.8
14 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 6.3 2.0 0.9
15 Paul Reed PHI 6.0 5.3 1.3
16 Jaden Springer PHI 5.5 2.6 1.1
17 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 5.4 1.5 1.1
18 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.3 2.8 1.7
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 4.9 2.2 0.8
20 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.8 2.8 0.7
21 Robert Covington PHI 4.8 2.3 0.9
22 Dalano Banton BOS 4.5 1.9 0.8
23 KJ Martin PHI 4.4 2.1 0.9
24 Luke Kornet BOS 4.0 2.6 0.9
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.2 2.8 0.5
26 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.1 2.0 1.0
27 Mo Bamba PHI 2.4 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.