NBA games

UTAH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH29313820118
IND29383433134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home IND
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 34 33 3 5
Lauri Markkanen S 35 24 9 0
John Collins S 27 14 9 1
Collin Sexton 16 10 2 2
Simone Fontecchio 18 10 5 1
Keyonte George S 31 7 2 9
Kris Dunn 12 7 4 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 20 6 4 5
Kelly Olynyk 21 4 5 0
Ochai Agbaji S 26 3 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith 30 24 2 0
Myles Turner S 23 22 6 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 38 22 9 4
Jalen Smith 25 16 11 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 16 6 13
Buddy Hield 22 10 3 1
Bruce Brown S 32 9 4 0
Andrew Nembhard 19 9 4 7
Obi Toppin S 19 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
15%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 John Collins UTAH
12%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
10%
6 Obi Toppin IND
10%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
9 Bruce Brown IND
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
30%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.5 4.2 11.1
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.9 8.4 2.1
3 Myles Turner IND 15.1 7.5 1.8
4 John Collins UTAH 15.0 7.1 1.5
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 14.8 3.8 5.0
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.5 2.9 2.9
7 Buddy Hield IND 13.1 3.9 4.1
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.9 3.6 5.2
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 11.5 3.3 2.7
10 Bruce Brown IND 10.9 3.7 2.2
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.7 3.3 1.3
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.0 2.2 4.1
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.6 4.4 1.2
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.6 5.9 1.1
15 Keyonte George UTAH 8.3 2.5 3.0
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.6 4.2 3.6
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.4 2.5 4.2
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.1 1.4
19 Jarace Walker IND 6.1 3.6 1.7
20 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.7 2.4 2.6
21 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.3 2.4 1.1
22 Jordan Nwora IND 4.9 1.8 1.1
23 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 4.7 2.2 1.0
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.7 3.8 0.6
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.9 1.8 0.7
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.8 3.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.